ANALYSIS OF 2012 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

With more than eight months away from the 2012 presidential election, political observers are already making predictions about the electorate's voting tendencies through analyzing past results.

They have pointed out that the KMT has a clear lead in northern Taiwan during recent elections, while the DPP dominates in the south. So voters in the central part of the island are expected to play a decisive role in the outcome of the race.

In the 2012 presidential election, Presidenet Ma Ying-jeou is seeking re-election, DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen is running for the top job on behalf of the DPP, calling for the third power change.

In fact, the special five municipalities elections at the end of last year were believed to be a skirmish for the presidential election.

It's apparent that the KMT dominates Northern Taiwan and the DPP takes the South with the decisive point being Central Taiwan.

DPP secretary-general Su Jia-chuan is working rigorously in Central Taiwan, which has been set as the major battlefield.

For the first time, KMT hosts its National Congress in Taichung, which shows how much weight the city carries in the election.

While the KMT tried to cut its ties with local factions during the special five municipalities elections, there has been some disputes with the black faction.

Now independent lawmaker Yen Ching-biao, who has tremendous influence in Taichung, has a dispute over the amendment of the special funds for top government officials.

These episodes may develop into something that changes the campaign dynamic in Taichung.

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